We heard Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan condemn the Bitcoin hard. Among Italians we read Alberto Forchielli talk about it as a myth and a bubble, and so on a lot of detractors.
We are deeply convinced that cryptocurrencies or in any case the concept of Distributed Ledger Technology will positively change the world. Even if it does not follow the same path as the internet, the effects will still be disruptive. No one, however, has ever bothered to imagine what would happen if Bitcoin, and with him all the other cryptocurrencies, fail. Completely.
What would happen if in a short time the market lost total confidence and went to values of the order, we imagine, of the total 50,000 Dollars? If the wind towards the blockchain and all the other distributed systems changes and starts to consider them simple garbage without practical applications?
Here are the possible consequences for each of these cryptocurrency agents:
- THE BIG BUSINESSES
Minimum common denominator: a lot of money thrown to the wind. Many companies also those one listed on the stock exchange or by the high-sounding name (see Western Union, IBM and others) would have squandered millions in research, in which they are investing for now even huge resources in trying to understand something about cryptos. But doesn’t matter so much, research often serves to progress. At other times, instead, slams at the end of dead ends. And dies. Maybe for the big companies blockchain and the DLT will remain something to leave dusty in their archives, and that’s it.
Behind the world of cryptocurrencies are developing more and more new companies and startups worldwide, from consulting, development to the creation of new software and hardware. Naturally, if the interest in the market disappears, the market itself disappears, and the companies die. As in a capsized Blockbuster case: these companies have arrived so early that the market does not exist for them. Here too, the wasted money would be millions. However, they also have a lot of know-how, technology, personal investments, family and jobs. A rather painful end.
- EXCHANGES AND UNICORNS
On the one hand, the exchanges such as Kraken that have existed since the dawn of the cryptocurrencies, on the other those that were born and in less than a year and have recorded very high levels of customers (see Binance, which we can recklessly count among the unicorns of this sector). Huge wallets totally emptied of their customers. Portfolios, however, that will have cost the workplace to hundreds of employees in the world. Their owners, however, with all due respect to the money-wasters, will almost certainly have inflated their wallets and will be able to conclude the experience happily. With the only regret, perhaps, to have thought too much about “wheat” and little to reduce fees and costs to encourage the popular development of a new technology.
46% of ICOs today fails within one year since have been launched. It will certainly not be TittieCoin, PacCoin or Tron to raise unemployment rates dramatically. Not even in Korea. Today, those who makes crypto development seriously, has a structured company behind. Whoever does it just to “try” remains a victim of the failure of his dream, whether it is easy or true revolution. ICOs are a great example of bootstrapping, companies started with minimal capital efforts. The ease with which you can create simply deflated a phenomenon that was born in a very short time and would soon disappear into oblivion. Remembered in the coming decades as an example for online scams.
What is the purpose of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero and the others? If nobody recognizes them a value, it is plausible that nobody wants them in exchange for goods or services. And that nobody is interested in doing financial trading. It’s the market! In this way tokens would remain in the wallets (wallet online, offline, on the exchanges that remained active) of the users. And the exchanges that decided to close? They will probably ask users, before closing, to transfer everything to other types of wallets that remain to the user. The misappropriation, could remain a crime in the near future.
- GOVERNMENTS AND INSTITUTIONS
Probably, the only ones that really would celebrate. An issue of incomprehensible importance that they don’t have to face anymore. Driving change is the task of politics, but when these changes are too revolutionary, the mistake is just around the corner. And so a disappearance of the cryptocurrency phenomenon would be quite blessed by the whole political system.
The cliché of the criminal Bitcoin is now in its waning phase. The dark web may have little repercussions, but the pace would be short and from the cryptocurrencies to cash and to money laundering the pace would be short. Little painful.
- USERS: SOFT CRYPTORS
Millions of users who entered between June and August 2017 would sell everything, with huge losses, and spend the following months and years damaging investments in advanced technologies. They are those who hoped to become rich. Those who at the announcement that “After 2 weeks you can do the Lambo” a little ‘we hoped. Instead they end up on the ground, and they sell everything for a few cents.
- USERS: THE HARD CRYPTORS
They are the point of the whole thing. Those who, coding from the age of 5, have created everything, are the core that we do not even imagine how it can detach itself from a creature with a revolutionary reach. In a mix of anarchist liberalism and a sense of belonging to a community, Bitcoin conceives it as something detached from the world we know. They even if it is traded at 10,000 Dollars always talking about 1 Bitcoin worth 1 Bitcoin.
Is it easy to change the mind of those who believe that state money is obsolete, restrictive in international trade, freedom and the banking system based on the great lie of the unconditional loan to the banks? No, absolutely no.
First of all Bitcoin and in part the other cryptocurrencies represent for a very limited core of people in the world the possibility of exchanges in a way that for their own faith believe the correct one in the economic interactions between humans. Even if the cryptocurrencies may go bad and reach the most total disaster, until the birth of a new concept of money, will always remain the prerogative of a nucleus of theologians of non-state currencies.
As we often repeat, the extreme financialization of the crypto market has clouded many indicators in the world of cryptocurrencies, but it is misleading and counterproductive to talk about the diffusion of cryptocurrencies as just a financial asset. Behind them is the historical scope of an alternative to thousands of years of money-based exchange systems, a change in economic theory, not the arrival of the umpteenth asset to be traded.
In this key, the reason why cryptocurrencies can probably be destined to an eternal cohabitation with fiat currencies is hidden, perhaps they will find diffusion in purchases on the web and not on those in physical stores. The cultural step that they have started will require time for politics and institutions. But once they have understood its strength, they will be able to come to terms with it and to lead it as healthy as possible.
Real possession of own possessions, security, perfect traceability, are too important elements especially if taken together, to label the cryptocurrencies and the DLT as a bubble destined to oblivion. A future in the world of every day, however distant and impervious, there will be.